By Michael Donikian, USAT Certified Coach, NASM-CPT
A while back I made a bold statement.. 3:10 or bust for NYC Marathon. I thought it was time to make a post about how that's coming along. In short, it's coming along. I was a little bummed about my very recent run performance at NYC tri where I ran slower than last year, despite improved fitness. Ok. A LOT bummed. But there were good reasons for that and I take it as just a one off.
Today I did a brick which included an 8 mile run. Within the run, I chose a hilly 10K section to attempt to run steady state at about marathon pace. I ran it at a pretty steady 7:24 pace (a little slower up hill / a little faster downhill). I maintained roughly the same average heart rate I did in NYC marathon last November despite the 93 degree temperature today so I think it's a good preview of what's to come. Assuming I maintain the same pace, that's puts me at about a 3:13... so I'm not terribly far off and I still have many weeks of training ahead.
Showing posts with label run race predictor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label run race predictor. Show all posts
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
3:10 or bust for NYC Marathon
There I said it. Publicly.
As an added twist, within team Sports Bistro we're having a little friendly competition on who can run the fastest marathon in 2010. I can't predict whether I'll win this fun little game, but I can predict what a reasonable finish time for me is.
So you might be wondering how I came up with 3:10. During my experience as both a competitor and coach, I've come up with a number of ways to predict and validate run performances. I'm going to share some of these methods and assumptions with you and use myself as an example as I walk you through the steps. It requires some physiology background, but if you get the science behind it you can then use a similar set of steps to make your own prediction.
#1 Do the training appropriate for the distance and the goal time. Sorry no way out of this one. I can easily write myself a training program that gets me there. The hard part is finding the time to actually execute it! Big assumption -- but I think I can pull it off.
#2 Use a run race predictor to predict the result of a future race based on a previous one. You can find many of these online with some simple searching. The more similar the two races, the better the validity. I'm going to use my PR on a hilly 4 miler (26:46) which predicts a ~3:20 for me. Admittedly, a 4 miler is not close to marathon, but the underlying fitness potential is still there. I also very recently ran this 4 miler in a time of 29:19 at a comfortable (non-race) pace. Cutting 2.5 minutes would not have been hard if I went all out. 3:20 is a good starting point but it's not 3:10 so...
#3 Factor in some improvement from your starting point. (otherwise what's the point of training?) 10% is a good amount. My belief that an athlete should be able to improve by about 10% if he/she follows a well structured training plan for the course of ~26 weeks. This assumes that the athlete is not already near the limits of human performance or the absolute limits of his/her own ability... otherwise you might be lucky to get 0.5% better. One can estimate absolute performance ceilings through a VO2 max. A 3:10 (on a flat course) roughly equates to someone with a Vo2 max of 50 ml/min/kg. With a personal V02 max of 60+, I have enough headroom to know I'm not nearing those limits. Since my lactate threshold is also quite high, I have to assume that mechanical efficiency is my limiting factor. 3:10 is also well within 10% of the 3:20 predicted time (see above). It's actually only 5%.
#4 Cross check this goal time with your zones. I use Joe Friel's system predominantly. A 3:10 marathon (7:15 pace) is roughly mid-zone 3 effort. I can check my heart rate at goal pace and see if it lines up in the middle of zone 3. Today that ~7:15 pace I need is more of a zone 4 effort. Hopefully with some improvement I can drive it down to zone 3. I will need to continuously monitor the relationship between my paces and zones as training progresses and see if this goal is still realistic.
#5 Fuel efficiency? What percentage of your energy comes from carbs vs fat at any given intensity level. If you're a carb burner you're very likely to run out of fuel and bonk mid race even if you choose an appropriate zone/pace/intensity. This is a problem I know have -- I've been tested on the metabolic cart and can see how I switch to carb burning mode at even moderate intensity levels. While I could circumvent this problem on race day via carbo-loading the day before and taking sufficient gels and sports drink I probably wouldn't survive the training plan that gets me there; I'd be constantly tired and exhausted. This constant tiredness has absolutely plagued me in the past. I recently started following Bob Seebohar's nutrition periodization protocols in hopes of making myself more fuel-efficient. I will try to get myself retested on the metabolic cart and see how well it worked!
OK - that's A LOT of assumptions! But none of them are that far fetched. I'll post some regular updates and let you know how it's going.
As an added twist, within team Sports Bistro we're having a little friendly competition on who can run the fastest marathon in 2010. I can't predict whether I'll win this fun little game, but I can predict what a reasonable finish time for me is.
So you might be wondering how I came up with 3:10. During my experience as both a competitor and coach, I've come up with a number of ways to predict and validate run performances. I'm going to share some of these methods and assumptions with you and use myself as an example as I walk you through the steps. It requires some physiology background, but if you get the science behind it you can then use a similar set of steps to make your own prediction.
#1 Do the training appropriate for the distance and the goal time. Sorry no way out of this one. I can easily write myself a training program that gets me there. The hard part is finding the time to actually execute it! Big assumption -- but I think I can pull it off.
#2 Use a run race predictor to predict the result of a future race based on a previous one. You can find many of these online with some simple searching. The more similar the two races, the better the validity. I'm going to use my PR on a hilly 4 miler (26:46) which predicts a ~3:20 for me. Admittedly, a 4 miler is not close to marathon, but the underlying fitness potential is still there. I also very recently ran this 4 miler in a time of 29:19 at a comfortable (non-race) pace. Cutting 2.5 minutes would not have been hard if I went all out. 3:20 is a good starting point but it's not 3:10 so...
#3 Factor in some improvement from your starting point. (otherwise what's the point of training?) 10% is a good amount. My belief that an athlete should be able to improve by about 10% if he/she follows a well structured training plan for the course of ~26 weeks. This assumes that the athlete is not already near the limits of human performance or the absolute limits of his/her own ability... otherwise you might be lucky to get 0.5% better. One can estimate absolute performance ceilings through a VO2 max. A 3:10 (on a flat course) roughly equates to someone with a Vo2 max of 50 ml/min/kg. With a personal V02 max of 60+, I have enough headroom to know I'm not nearing those limits. Since my lactate threshold is also quite high, I have to assume that mechanical efficiency is my limiting factor. 3:10 is also well within 10% of the 3:20 predicted time (see above). It's actually only 5%.
#4 Cross check this goal time with your zones. I use Joe Friel's system predominantly. A 3:10 marathon (7:15 pace) is roughly mid-zone 3 effort. I can check my heart rate at goal pace and see if it lines up in the middle of zone 3. Today that ~7:15 pace I need is more of a zone 4 effort. Hopefully with some improvement I can drive it down to zone 3. I will need to continuously monitor the relationship between my paces and zones as training progresses and see if this goal is still realistic.
#5 Fuel efficiency? What percentage of your energy comes from carbs vs fat at any given intensity level. If you're a carb burner you're very likely to run out of fuel and bonk mid race even if you choose an appropriate zone/pace/intensity. This is a problem I know have -- I've been tested on the metabolic cart and can see how I switch to carb burning mode at even moderate intensity levels. While I could circumvent this problem on race day via carbo-loading the day before and taking sufficient gels and sports drink I probably wouldn't survive the training plan that gets me there; I'd be constantly tired and exhausted. This constant tiredness has absolutely plagued me in the past. I recently started following Bob Seebohar's nutrition periodization protocols in hopes of making myself more fuel-efficient. I will try to get myself retested on the metabolic cart and see how well it worked!
OK - that's A LOT of assumptions! But none of them are that far fetched. I'll post some regular updates and let you know how it's going.
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